Forecasting Copper Prices Using Hybrid Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Genetic Algorithms     

Alameer  Zakaria  Elaziz  Mohamed Abd  Ewees  Ahmed A.  Ye  Haiwang  Jianhua  Zhang 《Natural Resources Research》2019,28(4):1385-1401

Natural Resources Research - An accurate forecasting model for the price volatility of minerals plays a vital role in future investments and decisions for mining projects and related companies. In...  相似文献   

Geophysical Signature of the Shallow Water Flow in the Deepwater Basin of the Northern South China Sea     

Xiaohua Zhang  Yunbao Sun  Shiguo Wu 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2018,17(4):791-798

Shallow water flow (SWF), a disastrous geohazard in the continental margin, has threatened deepwater drilling operations. Under overpressure conditions, continual flow delivering unconsolidated sands upward in the shallow layer below the seafloor may cause large and long-lasting uncontrolled flows; these flows may lead to control problems and cause well damage and foundation failure. Eruptions from over-pressured sands may result in seafloor craters, mounds, and cracks. Detailed studies of 2D/3D seismic data from a slope basin of the South China Sea (SCS) indicated the potential presence of SWF. It is commonly characterized by lower elastic impedance, a higher Vp/Vs ratio, and a higher Poisson’s ratio than that for the surrounding sediments. Analysis of geological data indicated the SWF zone originated from a deepwater channel system with gas bearing over-pressured fluid flow and a high sedimentation rate. We proposed a fluid flow model for SWF that clearly identifies its stress and pressure changes. The rupture of previous SWF zones caused the fluid flow that occurred in the Baiyun Sag of the northern SCS.  相似文献   

Regional Characteristics and Causes of Haze Events in Northeast China     

Weiwei Chen  Shichun Zhang  Quansong Tong  Xuelei Zhang  Hongmei Zhao  Siqi Ma  Aijun Xiu  Yuexin He 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2018,28(5):836-850

Northeast China experiences severe atmospheric pollution, with an increasing occurrence of heavy haze episodes. However, the underlying forces driving haze formation during different seasons are poorly understood. In this study, we explored the spatio-temporal characteristics and causes of haze events in Northeast China by combining a range of data sources(i.e., ground monitoring, satellite-based products, and meteorological products). It was found that the ‘Shenyang-Changchun-Harbin(SCH)'city belt was the most polluted area in the region on an annual scale. The spatial distribution of air quality index(AQI) values had a clear seasonality, with the worst pollution occurring in winter, an approximately oval-shaped polluted area around western Jilin Province in spring, and the best air quality occurring in summer and most of the autumn. The three periods that typically experienced intense haze events were Period I from mid-October to mid-November(i.e., late autumn and early winter), Period II from late-December to February(i.e., the coldest time in winter), and Period III from April to mid-May(i.e., spring). During Period I, strong PM_(2.5) emissions from seasonal crop residue burning and coal burning for winter heating were the dominant reasons for the occurrence of extreme haze events(AQI 300). Period II had frequent heavy haze events(200 AQI 300) in the coldest months of January and February, which were due to high PM_(2.5) emissions from coal burning and vehicle fuel consumption, a lower atmospheric boundary layer, and stagnant atmospheric conditions. Haze events in Period III, with high PM_(10) concentrations, were primarily caused by the regional transportation of windblown dust from degraded grassland in central Inner Mongolia and bare soil in western Jilin Province. Local agricultural tilling could also release PM_(10) and enhance the levels of windblown dust from tilled soil. Better control of coal burning, fuel consumption, and crop residue burning in winter and autumn is urgently needed to address the haze problem in Northeast China.  相似文献   

海水中铯-137的γ能谱测量不确定度评估     

魏计房  邓春梅  王荣元  王伟  张馨星  姚海燕  张蒙蒙  丁凯 《海洋学报》2018,40(8):20-28

为科学评价测量结果的可靠性，对海水中137Cs γ能谱分析方法的不确定度进行了评估。根据《化学分析中不确定度的评估指南》，分析不确定度的来源并逐一对各不确定度分量进行了量化，最终计算了合成相对标准不确定度。结果表明，影响海水中137Cs γ能谱测量不确定度的因素分别为样品源137Cs峰区计数、标准源活度、取样体积、化学回收率、本底137Cs峰区计数及标准源137Cs峰区计数，其中样品源137Cs峰区计数的不确定度贡献最为突出。对于137Cs活度浓度为1.28 mBq/L的海水样品，其合成相对标准不确定度为9.78%。  相似文献   

基于多源遥感数据的日本海内波特征研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

孙丽娜  张杰  孟俊敏  王晶  张旭东 《海洋学报》2018,40(3):102-111

日本海特殊的地理位置和复杂的地形使得该海域内波表征极为复杂，遥感是大范围观测内波的有效手段，已被广泛应用于内波的探测研究。本文利用MODIS、GF-1和ENVISAT ASAR遥感影像，开展了日本海内波特征研究。通过提取内波波峰线，生成了日本海内波空间分布图；获取了内波的波峰线长度和传播速度，并基于非线性薛定谔方程反演了内波振幅。研究结果表明，日本海内波分布范围宽广，不仅大陆架沿海区内波分布密集，深海盆地也探测到了大量内波；日本海北部45°N附近海域有少量内波出现，利用高分影像探测到朝鲜陆架浅海区有大量小尺度内波，大和海盆、大和隆起的西南部海域没有发现内波。日本海内波波峰线长达100多千米，深海区的传播速度大于1 m/s；浅海区内波振幅约10 m左右，深海区可达60 m以上。  相似文献   

Effect of Aspect on Climate Variation in Mountain Ranges of Shennongjia Massif,Central China     

Yi Zhang 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2018,28(1):74-85

The aim of this study was to better understand the mechanisms of regional climate variation in mountain ranges with contrasting aspects as mediated by changes in global climate. It may help predict trends of vegetation variations in native ecosystems in natural reserves. As measures of climate response, temperature and precipitation data from the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges of Shennongjia Massif in the coldest and hottest months(January and July), different seasons(spring, summer, autumn, and winter) and each year were analyzed from a long-term dataset(1960 to 2003) to tested variations characteristics, temporal and spatial quantitative relationships of climates. The results showed that the average seasonal temperatures and precipitation in the north, east, and south aspects of the mountain ranges changed at different rates. The average seasonal temperatures change rate ranges in the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges were from –0.0210℃/yr to 0.0143℃/yr, –0.0166℃/yr to 0.0311℃/yr, and –0.0290 ℃/yr to 0.0084℃/yr, respectively, and seasonal precipitation variation magnitude were from –1.4940 mm/yr to 0.6217 mm/yr, –1.6833 mm/yr to 2.6182 mm/yr, and –0.8567 mm/yr to 1.4077 mm/yr, respectively. The climates variation trend among the three mountain ranges were different in magnitude and direction, showing a complicated change of the climates in mountain ranges and some inconsistency with general trends in global climate change. The climate variations were significantly different and positively correlated cross mountain ranges, revealing that aspects significantly affected on climate variations and these variations resulted from a larger air circulation system, which were sensitive to global climate change. We conclude that location and terrain of aspect are the main factors affecting differences in climate variation among the mountain ranges with contrasting aspects.  相似文献   

超慢速扩张环境下超镁铁质岩系统的热液硫化物成矿机理以及启示     

曹红  孙治雷  刘昌岭  姜学钧  何拥军  黄威  尚鲁宁  王利波  张喜林  耿威  施美娟  李东义 《海洋学报》2018,40(4):61-75

西南印度洋63.5°E热液区是在超慢速扩张洋脊发现的首个超镁铁质岩热液系统。对取自该区的热液硫化物样品进行了系统的矿物学和地球化学分析，矿物学分析结果表明:该热液区硫化物为富Fe型高温硫化物，且经历了较深程度的氧化蚀变，大量中间态的Fe氧化物充填在硫化物矿物间的孔隙及内部解理中；这些硫化物相以白铁矿为主，其次是等轴古巴矿和少量铜蓝，缺乏黄铁矿、闪锌矿。据推断，该区的热液成矿作用分为4个阶段:低温白铁矿阶段→高温等轴古巴矿阶段→自形白铁矿阶段→后期海底风化阶段（少量铜蓝以及大量的Fe的羟氧化物）。与之相对应，地球化学分析结果表明这些硫化物的Fe含量较高（31.57%~44.59%），Cu含量次之（0.16%~7.24%），而Zn含量普遍较低（0.01%~0.11%）；微量元素较为富集Co（328×10-6~2 400×10-6）和Mn（48.5×10-6~1 730×10-6）。该区硫化物中较高含量的Fe、Co与超镁铁质岩热液系统相似，明显高于镁铁质岩热液系统。独特的热液硫化物矿物学特征和元素组成可能与该区普遍出露的地幔岩、橄榄岩蛇纹石化作用以及拆离断层的广泛发育的环境有关。  相似文献   

An algorithm to resolve γ-rays from charged cosmic rays with DAMPE     

Zun-Lei Xu  Kai-Kai Duan  Zhao-Qiang Shen  Shi-Jun Lei  Tie-Kuang Dong  Fabio Gargano  Simone Garrappa  Dong-Ya Guo  Wei Jiang  Xiang Li  Yun-Feng Liang  Mario Nicola Mazziotta  Maria Fernanda Munoz Salinas  Meng Su  Valerio Vagelli  Qiang Yuan  Chuan Yue  Jing-Jing Zang  Ya-Peng Zhang  Yun-Long Zhang  Stephan Zimmer 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2018,(3)

The DArk Matter Particle Explorer(DAMPE),also known as Wukong in China,which was launched on 2015 December 17,is a new high energy cosmic ray and γ-ray satellite-borne observatory.One of the main scientific goals of DAMPE is to observe Ge V-Te V high energy γ-rays with accurate energy,angular and time resolution,to indirectly search for dark matter particles and for the study of high energy astrophysics. Due to the comparatively higher fluxes of charged cosmic rays with respect to γ-rays,it is challenging to identify γ-rays with sufficiently high efficiency,minimizing the amount of charged cosmic ray contamination. In this work we present a method to identify γ-rays in DAMPE data based on Monte Carlo simulations,using the powerful electromagnetic/hadronic shower discrimination provided by the calorimeter and the veto detection of charged particles provided by the plastic scintillation detector. Monte Carlo simulations show that after this selection the number of electrons and protons that contaminate the selected γ-ray events at～10 Ge V amounts to less than 1% of the selected sample.Finally,we use flight data to verify the effectiveness of the method by highlighting known γ-ray sources in the sky and by reconstructing preliminary light curves of the Geminga pulsar.  相似文献   

Porosity Distribution Characteristics and Geological Analysis of Brine Storage Medium in the Qaidam Basin,Western China     

Shuya Hu  Changlai Xiao  Xiujuan Liang  Quansheng Zhao  Guangcai Wang  Jianwei Zhang  Juan Feng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2018,28(4):707-716

Underground brine is an unusual water resource that contains abundant mineral resources. It is distributed widely in the Qaidam Basin, western China, a hyperarid inland basin located in the northern Tibetan Plateau. Pores in the brine storage medium act as storage space and transmission channels of underground brine. Therefore, the porosity of brine storage medium determines its ability to store brine. In this study, Mahai Salt Lake was used as the research area as a modern saline lake located in the north area of the Qaidam Basin. A total of 100 porosity samples were collected from eight sampling points in two profiles of the research area at sampling depths of 1.30–314.78 m. The porosity distribution characteristics and influencing factors in brine storage medium were analysed according to the measured porosity data. Based on analysis of the pore structure characteristics, the brine storage medium contains intercrystalline pores, unlike conventional freshwater storage mediums. Moreover, the primary salt rock is susceptible to dissolution by lighter brine, facilitating the formation of secondary porosity. Due to the formation of secondary pores, a porosity greater than 20% remains even at buried depths greater than 100 m. Based on the geological statistical analysis, due to the geographic location, salt formation time, and depositional environment, the porosity values of Mahai Salt Lake do not exhibit a wider distribution, but also show more extreme values than a nearby salt lake. Based on the porosity characteristics by depth, due to the presence of secondary pores, flooding, stratigraphic static pressure, and other factors, porosity shows fluctuations with increasing depth.  相似文献   

2016年中国沿海海平面上升显著成因分析及影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王慧  刘克修  范文静  冯建龙  王国松  张建立  王爱梅  李琰 《海洋学报》2018,40(2):43-52

使用中国沿海及西北太平洋区域的水位、海温、气温、气压和风等水文气象资料，详细分析了2016年中国沿海海平面显著升高的成因及影响。分析结果表明:（1）2012-2016年，中国沿海海平面处于准2 a、4 a、准9 a和准19 a周期振荡的高位，几个周期振荡高位叠加，对该时段海平面上升起了一定的作用；（2）2016年，中国沿海气温和海温较1993-2011年的平均值分别高0.7℃与0.5℃，均处于1980年以来高位；气压较1993-2011年的平均值低0.2 hPa；（3）2016年4月、9月、10月和11月，中国沿海海平面均达到1980年以来同期高位，这4个月的风场距平值在东海以南均明显偏大，且以偏南向和向岸风为主，风生流使得海水向岸堆积，沿海长时间以增水为主，对当月局部海平面上升的贡献率达到40%~80%；（4）2016年，中国沿海降水总体偏多，局部区域降水量达到历史同期最高，加上沿海径流量的增加，对沿海局部海平面升高有一定贡献；（5）2016年9-10月，有5个台风相继影响我国南部沿海，持续的风暴潮增水导致台风影响期间的海平面高于当月平均海平面70~360 mm，风暴潮和洪涝灾害给当地造成直接经济损失超过30亿元。  相似文献